What to Expect
As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official forecast, predicting an above-normal season. With a combination of climate factors at play, NOAA urges coastal communities to prepare for potential impacts. As a follow up to our popular blog post regarding Major Hurricanes That Have Struck the Florida Pandhandle over the past 50 Years, we wanted to give visitor’s to the 30A, Santa Rosa Beach, and Florida Panhandle areas an updated look at what to expect in the Atlantic basin during the 2025 Hurricane Season.
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Recap
Last year, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season saw 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, making it one of the most active in recent history. This NOAA graphic displays Atlantic Hurricane tracks in 2024.
Florida Panhandle Spared from Major Hurricanes in 2024
While the Big Bend area of Florida had two major hurricanes hit in 2024 with Hurricane Debby making landfall in the Big Bend area on August 5 as a Category 1, and Helene as a CAT 4 on September 26. Debby went on to cause massive flash flooding in the Carolinas, and Helene caused historic flooding in Western North Carolina and Eastern Tennessee region. Hurricane Milton also made landfall near the Siesta Key and Sarasota, FL as a Category 3 on October 9.
The Florida Panhandle was largely spared in 2024, so the area has endured an area of relative calm.
๐ข2025 NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Predictions
- 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
These predictions come with a 70% confidence level, indicating a strong likelihood of an active season. Reference NOAAs website here.
Why an Above-Normal Season?
There are several climate related factors that contribute to NOAA’s forecast:
- ENSO-Neutral Conditions: The El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain neutral, meaning neither El Niรฑo nor La Niรฑa will dominate. This can lead to lower wind shear, allowing storms to develop more easily.
- Warmer-than-Average Ocean Temperatures: The Atlantic is experiencing higher sea surface temperatures, providing more energy for storm formation.
- Weak Wind Shear: Reduced upper-level winds allow hurricanes to strengthen without disruption.
- West African Monsoon Activity: Increased activity in this region can lead to more tropical waves which can lead into more intense storms.
๐กPreparedness is Key
NOAA emphasizes the importance of early preparation. Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm stated, “As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities. NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
With hurricane season officially running from June 1 to November 30, now is the time for residents in hurricane-prone areas to review emergency plans, stock up on supplies, and stay informed. We are no different in the Florida Panhandle, so stay tuned to our blog for updates as storms form in the Atlantic.
Final Thoughts
While NOAA’s forecast provides valuable insights, it’s important to remember that even a single storm can have devastating consequences. Staying prepared and vigilant throughout the season is the best way to ensure safety. For the latest updates and preparedness tips, visit NOAA’s official website and stay tuned here for updates as we want to give everyone enjoying the beautiful waters of the Emerald Coast along the Florida panhandle the latest and greatest information.
๐5Tides – Elevate Your Stay with Us
Staying vigilant and prepared is the key during Hurricane Season, but we will keep you updated on significant weather related events. Despite the unpredictable weather, Florida’s Emerald Coast remains one of the most breathtaking destinations to visit year-round. Experience the beauty and resilience of Florida while enjoying a safe and unforgettable stay at 5Tides.
Cheers!
-5Tides
